By:
Manpaa Aliyu Musa
As countdown to the 2023 general elections has begun in earnest with the commencement of political parties primaries across different political parties and electoral constituencies to select various political parties standard bearers for elections and recruitment in to various political offices ranging from (the state Assemblies , House of representatives and senate , gubernatorial and presidential ) interesting times are here for students of politics , political news makers , commentators and arm chair analyst.
One outstanding issue that stand remarkably conspicuous is the new political dynamics and emerging trend of the dollarization of political space across the two major contending Political parties the ruling All progressive Congress (APC) and the major opposition political party the People Democratic Party (PDP) with the speculation of the PDP special convention for the nomination of the presidential candidate toping the chat with whopping sum of $ 35000+= per delegate for now since the APC special convention for same purpose has not yet been concluded.
As at present Alhaji Atiku Abubakar former vice president to Dr Olusegun Aremu Mathew Obasanjo between 1999-2003 and the wazirin Adamawa has emerged as the PDP presidential Candidate, the former Governor of Kano state, former minister of defence and distinguished senator of the federal Republic of Nigeria Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankoso is already the presidential candidate of the revived New Nigeria People Party (NNPP) and Dr Peter Obi Business Mogul , the former governor of Anambra state and the running mate to the PDP presidential candidate in the 2019 general elections clinched the presidential ticket of the labour party.
Although, the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) is yet to complete its own presidential primaries. Feelers from the grapevine however are pointing to the direction that the president and his cabal are trying to edge out the most popular party chieftain and founding member of the APC Sen. Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the race in favour Dr Ahmed Lawan the current senate president of the federal Republics of Nigeria.
Of all the elections coming up in 2023 the presidential election seems to be more interesting and captured my attention, considering the major characters in the contest and present political exigencies at hand.
The burning question therefore is what are the intrigues, permutations and power dynamics in the 2023 presidential elections?
The answer to this question to a larger extent depends on the outcome of the APC presidential primaries coming up on the 6th of June 2022. This is because if by default APC refuse to provide level political latitude for all the aspirant in order to favour a particular candidate and short charged others it will spill doom for the whole electoral process and alter the existing political intrigues, permutations and power dynamics.
This is glaring because edging Alhaji Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the contest at this late hour will force him and his cult like clout of followers out of the party and there is authoritative and factual speculation that he will leave the party for SDP though not with intention of contesting election but to extract his own pound of flesh by forming third force to fight back and oust APC out of power.
The permutation of the third force protagonist is that, the likely emerging third force will be an alliance among seven political parties namely: NNPP, Labour Party, SDP and APGA among others. This new alliance will present Kwankoso /Obi ticket with the support of Bola Ahmed Tinubu of SDP. Take it or leave it this alliance will defy and defeat any political arrangement for obvious reasons such as the continues decline of PMBs popularity in the North and glaring abuse of the principle of internal democracy in APC , the ever growing popularity of the Kwankwasiya movement in the North west most especially kano and jigawa state, the declining political fortune of PDP in the South east as a result of its failure to honour its zoning arrangement couple with the mass defection of its strong pillars the likes of peter obi, Sen. Ike Ekweremadu, sen. Minority leader Sen. Aberibe and many more. When these political tendencies are factored in, with the Jagaban influence in the southwest and affluence and Peterb Obis popularity and financial muscularity added to the obvious reality that Both Atiku Abubakar and Sen. Ahmed Lawal are from north-east geo-political zone , there is the tendency that the duo would definitely splits the North-east vote with Atiku gaining Adamawa and Taraba and Ahmed lawan overwhelmingly winning Yobe and Borno while the share Gombe nd Bauchi in disproportionate proportion.
There is the tendency and very likelihood that the unexpected would happened as the underrated sen. Rabiu Musa Kwankoso the underdog and dark horse may course to victory probably in a very tight, tense and competitive contest if not re-run election.
Manpaa Aliyu Musa Wrote in From Pella,
Hong Local Government area of Adamawa state
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