By Mohammed Ismail
Tinubu’s latest changes in Nigeria’s ministry of defence as expected have elicited varying and widespread conversations and speculations.
A number of people will bet or stake their mothers over the belief that Tinubu kicked Muhammadu Badaru out of the coveted seat because of the latter’s unimpressive performance.
For me, this line of thought is not only simplistic but to a greater extent pedestrian and lacking in depth and understanding of Tinubu’s politics. The speculation as far as I’m concerned is rooted in hubris.
I made the above submission because of the fact that there is no any verifiable index or measurable parameter suggesting that Badaru was shown the way out over non-performance.
Our security situation since the incursion of all manner of criminals into our subconsciousness has kept worsening by the day regardless of whether the person occupying the office of the minister of defense came from a military or civilian background.
For me, the major drivers of insecurity in Nigeria remain widespread corruption, poverty, unemployment, struggle for resources, inequality, deep illiteracy – the list goes on.
The banditry we are witnessing today started nursing its ugly head in Zamfara State immediately after the tenure of Ahmed Yerima who used Sharia as a form of suppression meted to a certain class of people. Another trigger was massive cattle rustling and mostly unresolved crisis between herders and farmers which resulted in an ugly and endless circles of attacks and counter attacks between various communities.
While the simmering cauldron is building in Zamfara State and parts of the North West, another disaster was building in the North East when some youths who later denounced western education started their unwholesome activities.
Politicians were said to have capitalized on the naivety of the young men and used them to attain their political ambitions. The youths were dumped thereafter thereby setting them off against the larger society which they tormented without let or hindrance.
Since those days, insecurity conundrum has only amplified in scope and magnitude across Nigeria.
In the aftermath of our current democracy, four military generals have been appointed minister’s of defence: they are; Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma, Retired Army Lieutenant-General. He served from 1999 to 2003, Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, Retired Army Lieutenant-General. He served from March 2014 to May 2015.
The others are: Mansur Muhammad Dan Ali, Retired Army Brigadier-General. He served from November 2015 to May 2019 and Bashir Salihi Magashi, Retired Army Major-General. He served from August 2019 to May 2023.
With the exception of Theophilus Danjuma who served between 1999 – 2003, all the other generals served when insecurity was at its peak but mostly left the terrain worst than they met it. In fact, if truth must be told, Badaru has achieved more milestones in comparison to some of his past colleagues with military background. When he assumed office, the Abuja – Kaduna – Kano highway was a death trap as it has became kidnappers redoubt. It was also during his tenure that a number of high profile kidnappers and hardened criminals were neutralized.
With the arguments above, I know the natural question will be, if Badaru was not purged for incompetence then why the suddenness of his ouster?
This is where the Tinubu masterstroke came into play. In the wake of the Christian genocide frenzy which the U.S bought hook, line and sinker, Tinubu, a renowned political strategists has to deploy a way out of the quagmire and on time.
And his search for solution took him to the ministry of defence. He figured out that it will make more meaning for him to incorporate a minority Christian in the core security architecture of Nigeria as that will appease the U.S as well as the immediate constituency of the appointee who happened to be Gen Christopher Musa retired the immediate past Chief of Defence Staff.
For elaboration, Musa’s constituency consist of minority Christians in the North, the middle belt forum, and the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) whose boisterous wailing invited U.S wrath on Nigeria in the first place. The new defence minister’s immediate role is to first cajole and convince his immediate constituency that their claim of Christian genocide is a ruse founded on lies. How he contrived this magic is a sure recipe that will make or mar his welcome.
The second issue is that Musa also has a duty in immediately stopping the killings in Benue, Plateau, Kaduna and other parts of Nigeria inhabited by minority Christians. Failure to do so will make him subject of renewed attacks from the members of his constituency who may even accuse him of dancing to the rhythm of “Fulani agenda”.
On the political turf, the appointment of Musa provided a new window for a renewed understanding between the minority Christians and the Tinubu government ahead of 2027 general elections. The minority Christians and even CAN have unanimously rejected the Muslim-Muslim ticket of Tinubu in 2023 polls. But that support will no doubt be based on the success of the new minister of defence in halting killings in predominantly Christian enclaves in the North.
Ismail, writes from Yola.
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