Dangote Refinery Now our Lifeline, ₦1,500 Per Litre is Better than Scarcity, Marketers Tell Nigerians Amid Iran-US War

By Tgnews Reporter

As the Middle East conflict enters its second week with no clear end in sight, Nigerian oil marketers are urging citizens to prepare for petrol prices climbing as high as ₦1,500 per litre.

The National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry, made the stark prediction during an appearance on Channels Television’s The Morning Brief on Tuesday.

Gillis-Harry described the Dangote Petroleum Refinery as Nigeria’s “salvation” in the crisis, emphasizing that consistent product availability outweighs the pain of higher costs.

“The reality is that if you look at the volatility in the price from what we are seeing today, the Dangote Refinery is the salvation for us, due to the consistent source of product, which is much more important at this time than anything,” he said.

“The availability of product is much more important than pricing… ₦1500 per litre is not far-fetched. It should not make us panic. It is better for us to have the product available, be able to do our business, and get some level of energy security than not having it.”

The comments follow Dangote Refinery’s latest ex-depot price adjustment on Monday, hiking Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to ₦1,175 per litre from ₦995, and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO or diesel) to ₦1,620 per litre from ₦1,430. This marks the fourth consecutive upward revision in under two weeks, directly tied to global crude surges.

The refinery’s Managing Director, David Bird, explained that despite Nigeria’s crude-for-naira arrangement, Dangote remains fully exposed to international benchmarks, buying crude at global rates without discounts.

The price shocks stem from dramatic spikes in global oil markets, fueled by the US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory actions disrupting the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for about one-fifth of world oil supplies. Brent crude hit $102.8 (+10.91%) and WTI reached $101.0 (+11.08%) on Monday, with cumulative gains since the war’s start exceeding 60-75% in some benchmarks amid fears of prolonged supply disruptions.

US President Donald Trump has sent mixed signals on the conflict’s duration. On Monday, he described the war as “very complete, pretty much,” claiming Iran has “no navy, no communications… no air force” left, and predicted an end “very soon.”

He also announced waivers on some oil-related sanctions to boost supply and ease prices, while threatening overwhelming retaliation if Iran blocks Hormuz shipments.

However, Iranian officials have vowed to continue the fight and maintain restrictions on Gulf oil flows until attacks cease, rejecting calls for ceasefire or surrender.

The ripple effects are already hitting Nigeria’s downstream sector hard, with depot operators and retailers passing on costs. Marketers stress that while the hikes sting, Dangote’s domestic refining capacity prevents the kind of crippling shortages seen in past global disruptions.

As the war’s trajectory remains uncertain—despite Trump’s optimistic tones—Nigerians face tough choices between higher pump prices and potential fuel queues. Energy experts warn that sustained conflict could push prices even further, amplifying inflation and transport costs nationwide.